An up-armored placebo?

One of the main missions of the base where I work is up-armoring HMMWVs and LAVs -- both retrofitting and new installation. It is with this in mind that this story is an especially disturbing read.

I'm not up on any of these statistics, and the article doesn't really show any that support their argument. The article begins with this quote:

"I believe the up-armoring has caused more deaths than it has saved," said Scott Badenoch, a former Delphi Corp. vehicle dynamics expert told the Dayton Daily News for Sunday editions.

Hmm. A quote from a contractor. This puts me on the defensive because I immediately begin to ask myself what his agenda is.

Then the writer states:

But serious accidents involving the M1114 have increased as the war has progressed, and the accidents were much more likely to be rollovers than those of other Humvee models, the newspaper reported.

And offers no numbers to support this statement. The very next graph goes into numbers of fatalities showing that fatalities in rollover accidents have increased. But nowhere do they show how much HMMWV accident rates have increased or if the increase is significant.

Finally, we get to the meat where we understand why this guy is making these statements:

"The whole thing is a formula for disaster," said Badenoch, who is working with the military to design a lighter-armored vehicle to replace the Humvee.

Oh, so he stands to make a tidy sum if the HMMWV is scrapped in favor of a new light armored vehicle. So, not only am I defensive, but now I begin to treat everything he says as suspect.

The article rounds off by saying -- in the most, "Oh, really?" fashion it can muster -- that most fatalities in HMMWV rollover accidents are the gunners (you know, the guy who's sticking his head out the top of the thing). Hmm, wonder why?

While it may be true that HMMWV incidents have significantly increased in past couple of years, this article does nothing to show it. I certainly hope that the military is looking into this, but while any accidental death is a true crime, spreading this kind of alarmism is almost as bad. Almost as bad as not having the facts the back up the story you're trying to tell.

UPDATE: Mr. Bingley also tackles the subject.